Analysis and validation of 24 hours ahead neural network forecasting of photovoltaic output power

نویسندگان

  • Sonia Leva
  • Alberto Dolara
  • Francesco Grimaccia
  • Marco Mussetta
  • Emanuele Ogliari
چکیده

7 In this paper an artificial neural network for photovoltaic plant energy fore8 casting is proposed and analyzed in term of its sensitivity with respect to the 9 input data sets. 10 Furthermore, the accuracy of the method has been studied as a function 11 of the training data sets and error definitions. The analysis is based on exper12 imental activities carried out on a real photovoltaic power plant accompanied 13 by clear sky model. 14 In particular, this paper deals with the hourly energy prediction for all 15 the daylight hours of the following day, based on 48 hours ahead weather 16 forecast. This is very important due to the predictive features requested 17 by smart grid application: renewable energy sources planning, in particular 18 storage system sizing, and market of energy. 19

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Interval-based Solar PV Power Forecasting Using MLP-NSGAII in Niroo Research Institute of Iran

This research aims to predict PV output power by using different neuro-evolutionary methods. The proposed approach was evaluated by a data set, which was collected at 5-minute intervals in the photovoltaic laboratory of Niroo Research Institute of Iran (Tehran). The data has been divided into three intervals based on the amount of solar irradiation, and different neural networks were used for p...

متن کامل

Estimating Efficiency of Monocrystalline and Polycrystalline Photovoltaic Panels Using Neural Network Models

The energy production analysis of a  photovoltaic system depends on the panels tempreture and solar radiation. An endless and free source of solar energy received at the Earth's surface depends on the geographical location, different hours of day and seasons of the year.Hence, its correct evaluation is a strategic factor for the feasibility of a solar system. in this paper, a new method of ener...

متن کامل

Decision Technique of Solar Radiation Prediction Applying Recurrent Neural Network for Short-Term Ahead Power Output of Photovoltaic System

In recent years, introduction of a renewable energy source such as solar energy is expected. However, solar radiation is not constant and power output of photovoltaic (PV) system is influenced by weather conditions. It is difficult for getting to know accurate power output of PV system. In order to forecast the power output of PV system as accurate as possible, this paper proposes a decision te...

متن کامل

Power Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation

Photovoltaic power generation forecasting is an important task in renewable energy power system planning and operating. This paper explores the application of neural networks (NN) to study the design of photovoltaic power generation forecasting systems for one week ahead using weather databases include the global irradiance, and temperature of Ghardaia city (south of Algeria) using a data acqui...

متن کامل

Bayesian Based Neural Network Model for Solar Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

Solar photovoltaic power (PV) generation has increased constantly in several countries in the last ten years becoming an important component of a sustainable solution of the energy problem. In this paper, a methodology to 24-hour or 48-hour photovoltaic power forecasting based on a Neural Network, trained in a Bayesian framework, is proposed. More specifically, an multi-ahead prediction Multi-L...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Mathematics and Computers in Simulation

دوره 131  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2017